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How accurate are ATR forecasts?
ATR measures how far price typically travels in a bar, so it describes volatility rather than direction. A forecast of ATR is a forecast of how much room a move is likely to have. Measured across 115 qualifying charts.
| Timeframe | Median directional | Best | Charts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Minute | 61.6% | 80.0% | 16 |
| 5-Minute | 83.3% | 93.3% | 21 |
| 10-Minute | 70.0% | 86.7% | 21 |
| 15-Minute | 63.3% | 73.3% | 13 |
| 30-Minute | 56.7% | 76.7% | 15 |
| 45-Minute | 60.0% | 73.3% | 16 |
| 1-Hour | 56.7% | 70.0% | 13 |
Median and best directional accuracy. “Charts” is how many qualifying charts fed each row — the sample size behind the median, not a page count. Measured, not estimated.
Across every qualifying chart the median directional accuracy for ATR is 63.3%. Accuracy varies more by timeframe than by instrument.
What these numbers are
Directional accuracy is how often the projected direction proved correct, measured against what price actually did. It is not a claim about future performance. The forecasts themselves are produced inside the platform.
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