ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) VWMA: which timeframe is most reliable?
E-mini S&P 500 — VWMA prediction accuracy on each timeframe, measured.
| Timeframe | Confidence | Position | Directional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | 54.9% | 83.5% | 98.0% |
| 5 Minute | 42.9% | 54.6% | 98.0% |
| 10 Minute | 41.1% | 53.8% | 98.0% |
| 15 Minute | 46.2% | 63.8% | 98.0% |
| 30 Minute | 43.2% | 55.9% | 98.0% |
| 45 Minute | 49.0% | 65.6% | 98.0% |
| 1 Hour | 50.9% | 71.0% | 98.0% |
Track record: does the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) prediction call the direction?
| Measured on | Direction right | vs a simple guess | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour chart, 12 hours ahead | 76% | +6% | 300 |
A recent finished prediction: made Nov 2, 5:00 AM ET with ES's Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) at 7,608, it said higher 12 hours later (7,625); it was at 7,627 — the direction the prediction called.
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
On directional accuracy the strongest of these is 1 Minute at 98.0%. A slower frame usually sets context while a faster one decides timing, so the most accurate frame is not always the one to trade.
How to read this
Directional accuracy is how often the projected direction proved right; position accuracy is how closely the projected path tracked what actually happened. Confidence is LiveCharts.AI's own read. The live prediction itself is generated inside the platform.
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See LiveCharts.AI in action — predicted candlesticks and indicators, 30 bars into the future, before they occur:
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