ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) Ichimoku Cloud: which timeframe is most reliable?
E-mini S&P 500 — Ichimoku Cloud prediction accuracy on each timeframe, measured.
| Timeframe | Confidence | Position | Directional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Minute | 42.7% | 55.9% | 98.0% |
| 30 Minute | 48.1% | 54.8% | 98.0% |
| 45 Minute | 50.7% | 62.3% | 96.7% |
Track record: does the Ichimoku Cloud prediction call the direction?
| Measured on | Direction right | vs a simple guess | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour chart, 6 hours ahead | 74% | +28% | 292 |
| 1 hour chart, 12 hours ahead | 69% | +27% | 300 |
| 5 minute chart, 30 minutes ahead | 75% | +25% | 290 |
| 15 minute chart, 90 minutes ahead | 75% | +22% | 295 |
| 5 minute chart, 1 hour ahead | 69% | +21% | 295 |
| 15 minute chart, 3 hours ahead | 66% | +20% | 299 |
| 5 minute chart, 10 minutes ahead | 71% | +8% | 217 |
| 1 hour chart, 2 hours ahead | 65% | +8% | 216 |
| 15 minute chart, 30 minutes ahead | 70% | +4% | 222 |
A recent finished prediction: made Oct 30, 9:00 AM ET with ES's Ichimoku Cloud at 7,679, it said lower 6 hours later (7,673); it was at 7,618 — the direction the prediction called.
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
On directional accuracy the strongest of these is 10 Minute at 98.0%. A slower frame usually sets context while a faster one decides timing, so the most accurate frame is not always the one to trade.
How to read this
Directional accuracy is how often the projected direction proved right; position accuracy is how closely the projected path tracked what actually happened. Confidence is LiveCharts.AI's own read. The live prediction itself is generated inside the platform.
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